XXIV Convegno SISP

Università IUAV di Venezia
16 - 18 settembre 2010

Sezioni e Panels

8. RELAZIONI INTERNAZIONALI
Stefania Panebianco e Vittorio Emanuele Parsi

8.1 Global politics & Global policies

Chairs: Fulvio Attinà

Abstract: This panel is open to papers concerned with the analysis of the governmental structure and the policies of the global system. As far as the structure of government of the global system is concerned, applicants are invited to submit papers focused on the continuity and change of the organisation of authority and the policy-making institutions, process, and procedures of the contemporary world. Studies of the formation and execution of global public policies will deal with traditional policies like security and economic policies as well as the new policies on the agenda of the global system like anti-crime, health, and migration policies. Different theory perspectives and conceptual and empirical analyses of the past 60 years of international relations are welcome.

Papers

8.1.1. Gli attori della politica globale. Uno scenario geopolitico

Emidio Diodato

Abstract: L’Occidente è oramai una regione tra le altre del sistema politico globale. Si è incrinata la sua posizione egemonica in virtù della quale ha giocato per almeno due secoli un ruolo centrale, quello di principale intermediario della globalizzazione. Ciò che oggi rafforza la globalità del sistema internazionale è l’inclusione progressiva di una pluralità di attori, che agiscono, pur differenziandosi, nella medesima rete di interconnessioni globali, collocandosi su di un livello, se non di parità, senz’altro di maggiore equilibrio. In questo nuovo contesto, quali processi rafforzano la tendenza alla messa a punto di politiche comuni ed efficaci? Quali, al contrario, rendono ineffettiva l’attuale retorica sulla necessità di una governance globale?
L’intervento si propone di enucleare i principali fattori geopolitici di tipo culturale, strategico ed economico che consentono la formulazione di uno scenario plausibile delle relazioni internazionali contemporanee. Tale plausibilità è considerata in rapporto alla capacità dei principali attori di mantenere un equilibrio politico, quindi di dare forma a un concreto ordinamento politico-giuridico del globo terrestre, non solo in virtù di capabilities militari ed economiche, ma anche di un effettivo riconoscimento sociale quale fondamento di legittimità.

8.1.2. International Security, Multilateral Institutions and Legitimacy. The Role of Transatlantic Cooperation

Carla Monteleone

8.1.3. Il Buono, il Brutto, il Cattivo: Assessing the Imperialist Aspirations of the European Union, the Russian Federation, and the United States

Nelli Babayan e Stefano Braghiroli

Abstract: After the end of the Cold War, three substantially different powers have emerged on the international arena. While the United States has already established itself as one of the main world leaders, though trying to avoid the imperialist label, the EU and Russia were struggling throughout the 1990s over their somewhat fuzzy and multiple identities. However, closer to the year of 2000 the latter two started to have more distinct international images. While President Putin made firm conviction to acquire back the glory of the Russian Empire, Commission president Barroso compared the EU as a creation to the organization of empire.
This paper analyzes to what extent these imperialist claims correspond to the ideal type of an empire and whether they are supported by adequate foreign policies. It also categorizes the specifics of foreign policies of each of the mentioned political entities, tracking relevant developments within the three entities beginning from the year of 2000, which marked the elections of Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush and enforcement of the EU Amsterdam Treaty. The main finding of this paper is that none of the entities fully correspond to the ideal type of an empire.

8.1.4. La costruzione sociale dello “stato responsabile”: il potere come manipolazione degli incentivi

Irene Bono e Anna Caffarena

8.1.5. International policy subsystem: sottosistemi di policy e politiche globali

Andrea Prontera

8.1.6. Europe in the World: More Security, Less Poverty

Maurizio Carbone

8.1.7. Scarica il paper in pdfDue sfide globali alla global governance

Furio Cerutti

8.1.8. Actors and interactions in Global Communication Governance: The heuristic potential of a network approach

Claudia Padovani e Elena Pavan

8.1.9. Re-producing knowledge for development. The World Bank’s strategy after the launch of the Strategic Compact and the poverty of reform

Francesca De Chiara

8.1.10. The IMF and Civil Society. From Reluctance to Receptiveness

Roberto Belloni e Manuela Moschella

8.1.11. The domestic determinants of defendants’ responses in WTO litigation

Arlo Poletti

8.2 Guerre vecchie e nuove: L’uso della forza nel sistema internazionale contemporaneo

Chairs: Stefano Costalli, Francesco N. Moro

Discussants: Stefano Costalli, Francesco N. Moro, Andrea Ruggeri

Abstract: Se alla fine della guerra fredda era diffusa l’idea che la guerra sarebbe diventata un elemento residuale della politica internazionale, gli ultimi venti anni hanno dimostrato sia il suo persistere che il suo essere –avrebbe detto Clausewitz – un “camaleonte” che muta al mutare dell’ambiente in cui si trova. In queste due decadi, abbiamo assistito a prove di forza e straordinario avanzamento tecnologico (gli Stati Uniti in Iraq nel 1991 e nella guerra convenzionale del 2003), ma anche alla sempre maggiore importanza di sfide “asimmetriche” a tale superiorità, all’emergere di nuove minacce e alla necessità di ridisegnare le forze armate in virtù di tali cambiamenti. Questo panel vuole raccogliere contributi che mostrino le diverse modalità in cui l’uso della forza si è dispiegato nel mondo post-bipolare. Più specificamente, sono benvenuti lavori che riflettano su come le forze armate “convenzionali” dei paesi occidentali in primo luogo abbiano ripensato l’ambiente in cui si trovano ad intervenire, sulle elaborazioni dottrinali emerse al loro interno e su come effettivamente sono intervenute. Uno degli obiettivi di questo panel è inserire il dibattito sull’uso della forza all’interno della cornice metodologica fornita dalla scienza politica, per cui sono particolarmente apprezzati lavori che mostrino i diversi approcci e metodologie con cui questi fenomeni possono essere studiati.

Papers

8.2.1. Al di là della Fortezza Bastiani? La difesa del limes oltre frontiera e le minacce transnazionali. Monitoraggio e controllo dei confini nelle missioni militari italiane: tattiche, strategie, strumenti e lessons learnt

Fabrizio Coticchia e Barbara Nicoletti

Abstract: La fine della Guerra Fredda ha mutato il contesto strategico internazionale, alterando ed ampliando il significato stesso della nozione di minaccia, sicurezza o confine. Nell’epoca post-bipolare, l’Italia ha stabilmente impiegato le proprie forze armate al di la delle proprie frontiere, sposando il concetto di difesa avanzata in una vasta gamma di operazioni militari in aree di crisi per fronteggiare minacce transnazionali e garantire la sicurezza propria e della comunità internazionale. Al tradizionale impegno delle forze per la homeland security si è accompagnato uno sforzo continuo nel monitorare e sorvegliare i confini delle zone di conflitto nelle quali l’Italia ha dispiegato uomini e mezzi. Al fine di contrastare l’instabilità nel teatro di intervento, infatti, il monitoraggio dei confini rispetto a infiltrazioni di fattori di rischio tesi ad alimentare ed incrementare il livello di violenza, svolge una funzione fondamentale.
Obiettivo del presente paper è quello di analizzare il contesto culturale e operativo che ha caratterizzato nell’epoca post bipolare l’impiego delle forze armate italiane a difesa dei confini ben oltre le frontiere nazionali. Scopo della ricerca è porre in risalto l’insieme di tattiche, strategie e strumenti, concettuali e tecnici, relativo all’ambito del border control per alcune delle principali operazioni condotte nell’ultimo decennio. I casi di studio saranno selezionati diacronicamente in base alla natura della missione, distinta a seconda che si tratti di operazioni di peace-keeping alla frontiera (Libano), nation-building (Kossovo), counter-insurgency(Iraq/Afghanistan), pattugliamento di coste (Golfo di Aden).
La ricerca vuole comprendere come e su quali basi l’Italia ha sviluppato una propria strategia nazionale per garantire il controllo delle frontiere in contesti conflittuali e post-conflittuali. Attraverso fonti primarie e secondarie relative ai casi di studio, il paper mira a delineare un quadro dettagliato dell’approccio finora seguito, delle lezioni apprese, dei maggiori rischi, dei mezzi tecnologici più appropriati, dei cambiamenti concettuali e operativi ancora da implementare.

8.2.2. Il buono, il brutto e il cattivo? Mappare la molteplicitàd egli attori nelle operazioni di sicurezza e stabilizzazione

Stefano Ruzza e Chiara Ruffa

Abstract: Questi interventi – mai privi di una componente militare – hanno visto, affiancati ai soldati tradizionali, una molteplicità di attori diversi, dalle organizzazioni umanitarie (governative e non governative) ai private
security contractors. Tale diversificazione di strumenti è parsa una necessità ai decision-maker, ma non sempre è stata sinonimo di successo, anzi: spesso la complicazioneche ne è discesa ha reso difficile il perseguimento dei fini previsti. Il paper proposto parte da questa osservazione, proponendo la costruzione di un framework di analisi omogeneo che consenta di valutare, nell’ambito diun unico modello concettuale, la vasta gamma di soggetti coinvolti nelle operazioni di sicurezza e stabilizzazione.Il modello proposto ordina tali soggetti lungo due diversi continuum: pubblico/privato e militare/umanitario, riproponendosi di superare alcune limitazioni intrinseche ad approcci più convenzionali, e consentendo di valutare le relazioni tra i diversi soggetti in una prospettiva sistemica. L'articolo offre pertanto un contributo teorico ed empirico a un'area disciplinare non ancora esplorata, ma di fondamentale rilevanza per garantire l'efficacia degli interventi della comunità internazionale.

8.2.3. The Evolution of European Defence Policies after the Cold War. Europeanization, American Influence, or Strategic Adjustment?

Andrea Locatelli

Abstract: Among the various issue areas that are affected by the European integration process, defence is widely recognized as the most resilient to the influence of Communitarian institutions. Following the classical realist paradigm, EU Member States proved reluctant to give up their own autonomy in this sector. Such a view, focused exclusively on the top-down direction of the integration process, overshadows a more subtle phenomenon: starting from the early 1990s, most European countries have implemented parallel reforms of their Armed Forces. Although such initiatives seem not to be driven by an overarching common effort, they display analogous features. We may therefore talk about a bottom-up process of convergence. Our research question will then focus on the sources of this process. Given the different interests, political cultures and military endowments of EU states, is there a shared element that accounts for such a common reform path? In order to address these issues, three alternative approaches will be taken into consideration. The first one traces back as an ultimate cause the American influence (mostly via NATO) with particular reference to the so-called Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) and Defense Transformation debates. The second focuses instead on the possibility that the EU shaped such a process from the outside, through a phenomenon labelled as Europeanization. The third explains this puzzle as the attempt of EU states to adapt the post-bipolar security context. In order to develop this argument, the paper is organized into three steps: first, a broad overview of the defence reforms implemented by EU states will provide evidence of the empirical puzzle. Second, three hypotheses will be drawn from the approaches mentioned above. Finally, all the hypotheses will be tested on two case studies: French and Italy.

8.3 Il sistema contemporaneo fra regionalizzazione strategica e globalizzazione della violenza

Chairs: Marco Clementi

Discussants: Carla Monteleone, Andrea Carati

Abstract: Il sistema internazionale contemporaneo si distingue per il rapporto complesso e variabile che si instaura fra i processi politici che si sviluppano nei sottosistemi regionali e i processi politici di rilievo globale. Da un lato, il crollo dell’architettura bipolare e l’assenza di contrapposizioni tradizionali di prima grandezza hanno disegnato un panorama strategico in cui gli imperativi di sicurezza su scala regionale sono disgiunti in misura significativa e possono difficilmente essere organizzati in una gerarchia coerente e stabile per l’assenza di una minaccia prevalente nel sistema internazionale. Dall’altro lato, questo panorama è ulteriormente complicato da una pluralità di processi riconducibili al fenomeno della globalizzazione della violenza, che contribuiscono a mescolare fra di loro, ma in modo differenziato, i sottosistemi regionali e ciascuno di questi al sistema nel suo complesso. Così è per l’accresciuta importanza di minacce di natura transnazionale, come il terrorismo internazionale, che svincolano i repertori conflittuali e le strutture organizzative degli attori da una collocazione geopolitica statica. Così è per l’accresciuta profondità dell’intreccio fra le dimensioni interne ed esterne della conflittualità internazionale, che intacca il controllo statale sia rispetto all’emergenza della violenza internazionale sia rispetto alle risposte che questa riceve, visto il ruolo crescente delle cornici multilaterali per lo svolgimento di operazioni militari nello spazio globale. Così è, anche, per le stesse capacità del cosiddetto unipole del sistema, poiché il controllo sui beni comuni globali offre agli Usa una capacità di proiezione della forza che unifica strategicamente il globo in senso pro-attivo piuttosto che dissuasivo, come accadeva durante la Guerra fredda; e tuttavia questa unificazione si accompagna a un’elevata indeterminatezza degli scopi di sicurezza, portando a esiti variabili e sensibili a fattori contingenti.
In questo quadro, lo studio della sicurezza internazionale richiede di riflettere non solo sulle cause e la natura delle principali matrici di instabilità; ma anche sul modo in cui i diversi protagonisti del sistema le mettono in rapporto reciproco. In particolare, esso richiede di interrogarsi circa quali minacce di rilievo globale sono ritenute più importanti dalle diverse grandi potenze regionali, come queste vengono rapportate alle matrici di insicurezza regionale prevalenti in ciascun sottosistema; infine, come le prime e le seconde sono tradotte dalle grandi potenze regionali in una gerarchia congruente di politiche di sicurezza.
Queste domande identificano l’oggetto di indagine su cui il panel vuole stimolare il confronto. A tal fine, il panel è particolarmente aperto a paper empirici che descrivano e interpretino il modo in cui le grandi potenze regionali leggono il contesto strategico di appartenenza e il modo in cui tentano di gestirlo per via unilaterale, bilaterale o multilaterale. Particolare attenzione potranno ricevere i sottosistemi regionali caratterizzati da maggiore tensione o dalla presenza di significativi processi di transizione della potenza, come il Medio Oriente, l’Europa e l’Asia; ma di naturale interesse risultano anche sottosistemi come l’America Latina, il Corno d’Africa e l’Africa sub-sahariana.

Papers

8.3.1. Modernizzazione e sviluppo politico in Asia orientale. Una pace moderna?

Emanuele Castelli

Abstract: Il tema delle grandi paci regionali ha spesso affascinato gli studiosi delle relazioni internazionali, che hanno provato a spiegare perché, in certi periodi della storia e in ambienti apparentemente anarchici, stati in competizione tra loro non si siano combattuti, ma abbiano anzi instaurato relazioni pacifiche e cooperative. Fattori come la democrazia, il livello di interdipendenza economica, la partecipazione ad Organizzazioni Internazionali, fino all’affinità identitaria (necessaria per l’istituzione di “comunità di sicurezza”) sono dunque stati proposti come determinanti della tendenziale non bellicosità delle politiche estere di stati limitrofi.
In questo paper si ritornerà al classico paradigma della modernizzazione, in voga nelle scienze sociali a partire dalla fine degli anni Cinquanta del secolo scorso, per capire come anche lo sviluppo socio-economico – e le trasformazioni sociali ad esso associate – possa influenzare comportamenti pacifici di politica estera. Nello specifico, si prenderà in esame l’area est Asiatica nel trentennio che va dagli anni Cinquanta agli anni Ottanta del Novecento, dove stati autocratici ma economicamente sviluppati (da Taiwan alla Corea del Sud, dall’Indonesia alla Malaysia) non solo non hanno partecipato a guerre, ma hanno anche intrapreso, nel giro di qualche decennio, il percorso verso la democrazia. Certo, anche altri fattori, di natura sistemica – come il ruolo degli Stati Uniti, o il periodo di tripolarità dopo la distensione nixoniana con la Cina – hanno certamente contribuito a rafforzare la stabilità dell’area a partire dagli anni Sessanta. Ma poiché storicamente precedente (tanto alla pace quanto alla transizione da governi autoritari) e propedeutico (allo sviluppo politico e alla partecipazione a Istituzioni Internazionali), il processo di modernizzazione vissuto dai paesi in questione sembra essere il fattore decisivo per l’emergere della «lunga pace in Asia orientale». Una relazione, quella tra transizione alla modernità e assenza di conflitti, che può forse contribuire alla formulazione di nuove direttrici di ricerca e al tempo stesso gettare nuova luce sulle cause della pace democratica.

8.3.1. Preaching in the desert? Sanctions and human rights in Uzbekistan

Francesco Giumelli

Abstract: This paper attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of the European Union (EU) restrictive measures imposed on certain individuals in Uzbekistan after the events in Andijan in May 2005. The doubts cast on the utility of international sanctions by many studies are not aligned with the growing role of this foreign policy tool in the larger framework of EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), and one of the shortcomings of the existing analyses is the lack of contextualization of sanctions’ episodes. This paper aims at assessing the success of sanctions through their contextualization within a larger regional context and to the overall policy approach taken by the European Union. The paper is divided in three parts. The first part focuses on the objectives of international sanctions and their utility in foreign policy. The second part presents the crisis between the EU and Uzbekistan and describes the role of sanctions in the crisis since 2005. Finally, a thorough evaluation of the travel ban on the leaders of Uzbekistan is carried out. The objective of the paper is twofold: first, it contributes to the debate on assessing the effectiveness of an unexplored aspect of the EU common foreign and security policy, namely its sanctioning policy. Secondly, the paper analyzes the role of international sanctions in the twenty-first century and reaches an unconventional assessment of their utility both as a foreign policy and a conflict management tool.

8.3.2. Gli attori non-statali e la proliferazione delle armi di distruzione di massa. Il caso del terrorismo nucleare

Paolo Foradori

Abstract: Il paper analizza il fenomeno del terrorismo nucleare. La prima parte discute la crescente importanza degli attori non-statali nella politica globale e specificatamente nell’ambito della proliferazione delle armi di distruzione di massa. La seconda esamina le motivazioni, gli obiettivi, le strategie e le tattiche di azione di un’eventuale organizzazione terroristica dotata di armi nucleari. La terza parte esplora le possibili strategie per contrastare tale minaccia, sottolineando le difficoltà nell’applicare contro gli attori non-statali le tradizionali categorie analitiche e strategie di deterrenza sviluppate durante la Guerra Fredda. Nelle conclusioni, il paper argomenta che la minaccia del terrorismo nucleare è plausibile ma non deve essere esagerata. Esistono infatti numerosi ostacoli tecnici ed operativi, costi di opportunità, forme di auto-censura e di deterrenza in grado di scoraggiare anche il più radicale ed organizzato gruppo terroristico dall’infrangere il ‘tabù nucleare’ che ha resistito dal 1945.

8.4 IR and the Middle East: State, Market and Society Between Continuity and Change

Chairs: Roberto Roccu e Benedetta Voltolini

Discussants: Rodolfo Ragionieri

Abstract: In the minds of many scholars and practitioners alike, there is no area of the world that embodies better than the Middle East the famous precept that Tancredi spells out in The Leopard: ‘If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change’. Whereas there is certainly some truth to the claim that Middle Eastern states exhibit a significant mismatch between words and deeds, formal changes and informal resilience, conspiracies and unintended consequences, it would be misleading to accept the underlying message of overall continuity.
By exploring the interaction between global structures of power, states, non-state actors and social movements active in the region, this panel aims to grasp the complexity of the processes at work in the Middle East, in the persuasion that there is more change than meets the eye to be explained, and that even undeniable continuities need to be reassessed in the light of equally undeniable developments, such as for example: (i) at the international level, the rise of new powers (especially BRICs) and their increased assertiveness in the area, the policy changes effected by the Obama administration, and the broadest and deepest financial crisis since World War II; (ii) at the regional and domestic level, the economic reforms on which most states of the region embarked, their increased – albeit differential – integration within the world economy, the rise of new social and political actors, and the emergence of new identities combining traditional and modern elements.
Following this traditional analytical distinction, and the underlying thread of the unceasing dialectic between continuity and change in the region, this section would ideally be structured around two panels, respectively focusing on:
1) The international politics of the Middle East. Potential paper themes may include, but would not be limited to:
• New international power structure, old Middle East?
• The US, Europe and the Middle East: still an Unholy Trinity?
• NGOs, MNCs and Middle Eastern regimes: friends or foes?
• The global financial crisis and the Middle East: what lessons to be drawn?
2) Regional and domestic dynamics. Potential paper themes may include, but would not be
limited to:
• Liberalisation against democracy? States, social actors, and economic reforms
• More market, but not less state?
• Ethnic, religious, national identities: what implications for IR?
• Taming fundamentalism? Extremism and the responsibility to govern
This panel is strongly committed to theoretical, methodological and analytical pluralism. Contributions from applicants working within any of the above-defined areas is encouraged.

Papers

8.4.1. Scarica il paper in pdfThe EU, Human Rights Violations and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: Realist Behaviour Under the Guise of a Normative Actor

Silvia Colombo e Benedetta Voltolini

Abstract: The issue of the EU engagement with Islamists groups has acquired a new currency in the last few years and has attracted considerable attention. This issue is usually approached from a purely normative perspective, pointing out the lack of true democratic commitment on the part of the Islamist movements, on the one hand, and on the other hand the reluctance of the EU to precipitate relevant political changes and instability in the short-to-medium term by supporting the Islamist opposition against the regime. Because Islamist movements are conceived as security threats that can jeopardise EU possession goals (security and stability of the area), the EU tends not to engage with them, but, on the contrary, it adopts policies that do not challenge or that strengthen the authoritarian regimes in power. This stands at odds with the EU’s rhetoric about democracy and human rights promotion (milieu goals), as it should be expected that the EU supports demands for reforms coming from the opposition and adopts a distanced approach towards the regimes.
This paper explores the relation between the EU, on the one hand, and the Egyptian regime and the Muslim Brotherhood, on the other, with regard to the critical issue of human rights violations and in particular the repression of dissent. A number of detailed reports compiled by authoritative human rights organisations worldwide have disclosed a situation of abuses in the resort to emergency powers to clamp down on dissent targeting the regime. While advocating the respect of human rights in Egypt, the EU seems to be turning a deaf ear to the violation of human rights committed against the Muslim Brotherhood. By looking at some aspects of the repression of dissent, including arbitrary arrests, constraints on freedom of expression, and torture, the paper maintains that the apparent rhetoric-practice gap in the field of human rights protection and the engagement with Islamist movements is obliterated when the EU is understood as a rationalist actor that pursues its possession goals under the guise of a normative actor aiming to attain milieu goals.

8.4.2. Hizbullah’s Looking for Itself: The Development of Hizbullah’s Political Identity with Reference to the 1985 and 2009 Manifestos

Filippo Dionigi

Abstract: Hizbullah is a resistance and political movement with decades of experience in one of the most challenging social and geopolitical environments of the world. Its longevity and the capacity to survive to mutated circumstances is also the result of changes in its political outlook. What is the result of this process? Which factors had a prominent role in shaping Hizbullah’s political identity? This paper is mostly concerned with outlining the changes in Hizbullah’s political identity comparing two of the most relevant political documents released by movement: the 1985 Open Letter to the Downtrodden and the 2009 Political Manifesto. On the basis of this comparison the paper will document how the most prominent Shiite political and resistance movement has redefined its identity. Particular attention will be dedicated to the role of international norms as an emerging factor capable of permeating a strongly selfreferential political community. The study is also informative in providing a detailed discussion of the most recent Hizbullah’s political document.

8.4.3. Scarica il paper in pdfA Bridge Over Troubled Waters? Turkey’s Middle Eastern Policy and the West

Giovanni Faleg

Abstract: Over the past few years, Turkey’s government has played a “castling move” in its foreign policy. Shifting from its traditional westward focus, Turkey has become an active player in the Middle East, an engagement which has taken many forms: mediator (i.e. between Syria and Israel, Israel and Hamas, US and Iran and within the Arab world), energy player (i.e. East-West Energy Corridor), promoter of regional integration (through strategic cooperation council mechanisms set up with Syria and Iraq). How do we make sense of this U-turn and what implications may Turkey’s assertiveness in the region have on its relations with the West and, in particular, with the European Union? Is Turkey experiencing an identity shift in its foreign policy, thus evolving from a torn country acting as a bridge between cultures into a core state (Huntington, 1996) potentially leading the Middle Eastern region? Or is Turkey simply adjusting to international system change and “raising the stake” vis-à-vis the West, taking advantage of its unique geopolitical position? The paper addresses this question by confronting two competitive paradigms – identitybased politics and structural realism – to explain Turkey’s new foreign policy in the Middle Eastern diplomatic chessboard and draw implications for the relationship with Europe and the United States. The paper is structured as follows: the first section provides an overview of Turkey’s involvement in the Middle East to date, building on the three aforementioned typologies (mediator, energy player, promoter of regional integration). The second section explores Turkey’s shift in foreign policy according to two theoretical approaches: traditional balance of power (Turkey’s new foreign policy as a rational response to changes in the structure of the international system) and identitybased Islamization of Turkey’s foreign policy (under the Justice and Development Party’s leadership). In the third section, theoretical conclusions are used to assess the broader implications of Turkey’s engagement in the Middle East on the relationship with the European Union and the United States.

8.4.4. Scarica il paper in pdfSyria and Europe: The Practice of Multipolarity

Massimiliano Trentin

Abstract: Since 2001, the United States and Europe were stuck in the mire of the confrontational policy in the Middle East but they did not reap the fruits they had expected. Despite all difficulties, Syria closed the ranks domestically and sustained pressure by exploiting all the opportunities offered by a changing international system. At the end of the day, Damascus seemingly did not give up much of its diplomatic and economic claims in the region and if it did, that would be more attributable to the consequence of the political change occurring in the ruling élite rather than to that of western pressure. Along with its historical legacy of Arab nationalism, one might speak of Syria’s “domestication” of neoliberalism: this process occurring when the main sponsors of neoliberalism in the West have lost much of their enforcement power.

8.5 Japanese and Chinese Regional Security Policies- What, How and Why?

Chairs: Axel Berkofsky

Discussants: Axel Berkofsky

Abstract: This panel will seek to provide a qualitative and quantitative analysis of Japanese and Chinese Asian regional security policies:

• What do Tokyo and Beijing ‘do’ in terms of regional security and what policies and instruments are formulated and applied in Tokyo and Beijing?
• What is the overall measurable and concrete impact of Japanese and Chinese on Asian security and what is likely to change in the years ahead?
• What is ‘driving’ policymakers in both Tokyo and Beijing and what theoretical basis and background influence and define respective regional security policies?
• How do Tokyo and Beijing perceive each other as regional security actors and who and what in both countries shapes respective perceptions?
• What do Tokyo and Beijing do in terms of regional security policies to increase or ‘defuse’ the perceived Asian ‘security dilemma’?

As regards Japan, the current trends and measurable ‘output’ of Japanese regional security policies will be examined seeking to assess the qualitative and quantitative changes of recent years.

This panel’s papers will amongst seek to address the following questions:

• Is the ongoing transformation of Japanese regional security policies an indication that Japan is becoming to (even) more ‘realist’ as regards regional security policies?
• How and until what extent do the perceived threats from North Korea and China shape Tokyo’s regional security policies?
• How do Japanese policymakers and the country’s defense establishment exploit the perceived military and nuclear threats from North Korea when formulating and implementing security policies?
• How far does the Japanese public support the expansion of Japanese military capabilities in view of the threat Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs pose to Japanese national security?
• Could Japan in the years ahead consider to ‘go nuclear’ and how is nuclear armament at all ‘compatible’ with a country that still refers to itself as ‘pacifist’ (due to the so-called ‘pacifist’ Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution not allowing Japan to maintain armed forces)?

As regards, the analysis of Chinese regional security policies, the panel and papers will amongst others examine the following questions:

• How do China’s regional security policies ‘fit’ into the framework of Beijing’s ‘grand strategy’ and what is driving and defining them? The country’s ever growing quest for natural resources and economic interdependence as Beijing maintains?
• Is China striving for regional hegemony and dominance challenging US security influence and posture in Asia?
• Is China a ‘revisionist’ power or instead as Beijing argues a ‘soft power’ mainly (if not exclusively) interested in economic interdependence and development in Asia?
• How does so-called Chinese ‘soft power’ manifest itself in Asia and why does (economically developing) Asia does or does not perceive China as ‘soft power’?
• How willing is China to back up ‘soft power’ with hard military power and who other than currently Taiwan could be the target of Chinese military hard power?
How does the ‘soft power’ China explain the rapid increase of its military capabilities and who and what is China planning to defend itself against? The US? Japan?

Papers

8.5.1. An Italian appraisal of China's new role on the global stage

Giovanni Andornino

Abstract: In 2010 Italy and the PRC celebrate the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties. This commemoration, whose salience is more significant in the eyes of Beijing than would generally be assumed, comes at a time when both the international order and the tools Italy employs to deal with it face unprecedented changes. Emerging from the Great Recession in a position that is economically and politically stronger than other global actors, China has become an ineludible partner for any attempt to tackle global challenges through multilateral action. In Rome, a comprehensive reform of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs appears to be designed to enhance Italy's capacity to frame foreign policy with a global outlook, but risks jeopardizing current attempts to deepen Italy's bilateral relations with crucial players such as China. This paper provides an assessment of the current relationship between Italy and the PRC through an exploration of key political, economic and cultural dossiers. It concludes that this generally stable and positive partnership is far from achieving its full potential and fulfilling the "strategic" ambitions ostensibly attached to it by both sides.

8.5.2. Scarica il paper in pdfDiscord and Collaboration in the Pacific Alliance. US-Japan relations between new threats and old controversies

Matteo Dian

Abstract: The US-Japan security alliance (together with US military presence in Japan) constitutes a central pillar of East Asian peace and stability. During the Cold War, former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone defined Japan as a ‘US Unsinkable Aircraft carrier” pointing to the importance of the alliance and the US military presence in Japan (roughly 47.000 troops) for US and Japanese regional (and global) foreign and security policies and strategies. In recent years, however, the alliance has been undergoing a qualitative transformation generated and accelerated by amongst others a changing East Asian security environment, China’s political, economic and military rise as well as what is being referred to as “normalization” of the Japanese foreign and security policies.
The recent developments and trends of US-Japan security relations offer relevant aspects for IR theory-centered discussion in general and alliance theory in particular: A military threat-driven realist theory approach competes with a constructivist explanation based on identity and norms to explain the recent changes and developments in the framework of the US-Japan security alliance.
In this context I argue that the economic and military rise of China is not the main driver of these trends and changes as the balance of threat theory predicts. Instead, and in contrast to what a constructivist perspective would predict, I argue that recent developments in the framework of the US-Japan security alliance are above all driven and influenced by changes of Japan’s approaches towards and strategies of Japanese foreign and security policies, including gradual changes to what is being referred to as the ‘Yoshida Doctrine’. In the paper I argue that in order to be able to explain the changes and trends in the framework of the US-Japan security alliance in the context of IR theory, a different approach is needed: An approach which is referred to as “Alliance security dilemma.”

8.5.3. Scarica il paper in pdfChina Between the Mainland and the Sea. Maritime Rebalancing and Beijing’s Regional Security Policy

Simone Dossi

Abstract: Since the late 1990s Western literature on Chinese foreign and security policy has begun to analyse to what is being referred to as ‘China’s turning to the sea”. i.e. China’s strategies and policies to expand its maritime military capabilities.
A decade later, however, there is no consensus in the literature as to what Beijing defines as it maritime interests and what maritime military capabilities China will ‘need’ to secure its regional maritime interests. In this paper I try to contribute to this debate through an empirical analysis of the maritime rebalancing of China’s security policy analysing some of the implications for China’s overall regional security policies. In the first part of the paper, I introduce the topic by selectively reviewing Chinese literature: during the last decade ‘China’s turning to the sea” has been debated not only in the West but above all in China, where much has been written on the comparative advantages of sea and land power. In the second part of the paper I turn to an empirical analysis of the maritime rebalancing in China’s security policy: Firstly I discuss evidence of a maritime rebalancing in China’s military doctrine, drawing on selected works by Chinese leaders and on Chinese secondary literature; then I analyse how doctrinal evolution has been translated into organizational change within the two areas of force deployment and PLA’s personnel allocation among services, drawing on data from the IISS Military Balance. Finally, in the third section of the paper I focus on the interaction between the maritime rebalancing in China’s security policy and Beijing’s regional security policy examining the potential incongruence between these two policy areas.

8.5.4. Old and New Powers: Engagement and Socialization in EU-China Relations

Salvatore Finamore

Abstract: The rise of an emerging great power poses a number of questions and challenges for the existing actors of the international system, which can respond through several different strategies and approaches, such as for example balancing or bandwagoning. The strategy adopted by the European Union and its Member States to deal with the rise of China has often been described – in the literature as well as in the Commission’s policy papers – as one of ‘constructive engagement’. The notion of engagement, however, is generally undertheorized, and not entirely unambiguous. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes a conceptualization of constructive engagement through the prism of socialization theory, mainly as developed in International Relations by Iain Johnston and Jeffrey Checkel. This approach allows for greater analytical depth, by breaking up the notion of engagement into three categories which differ in terms of both the intended socialization outcomes and the policy instruments adopted by the ‘engager’. This analytical framework is applied to the subject of EU-China relations to investigate the aims and instruments of Europe’s China policy. These are then confronted with China’s own expectations and policy goals in relation to Europe, with a view to the implications they may have for the future of the EU-China strategic partnership.

8.6 Market, security or waste? Energy and international relations

Chairs: Andrea Ciambra

Discussants: Francesca Longo

Abstract: This panel aims to further investigate and analyse the multifaceted nature of energy as a policy issue. Emphasis is put on the emergence of a global governance of energy market, the securitisation of energy and ‘pipeline diplomacy’, and the most pressing issues of environmental policies connected to energy provision.
Proper emphasis should be put on the theoretical salience of the issue. Energy has been open to a vast debate in the literature, and to the most diverse interpretations. Realist and neo-realist accounts see energy simply as the nth insight of a structural struggle for material power among significant units of the world system—namely, nation-states. They confront the relevance of ad hoc institutions and agreements. Pipeline diplomacy, reserves as bargaining chips and zero-sum market games dominate their landscape. Neo-liberal, market-oriented interpretations have been even more prolific. Not only do these approaches do better justice to the emerging energy global governance, but they also led to the development of salient competing frameworks, wherein regime theory and public good theory have offered insightful contributions. Moreover, beyond orthodox market-centred literature, epistemic communities theory has had the merit to stress the importance of knowledge, technical expertise and transnational policy-oriented communities in the construction of a Western ‘understanding’ on the energy issue. Regional and European studies have further contributed to the debate, stressing the role of adequately constructed policy narratives and technical endowments: the EU, in particular, has been able to build consistent outward policies upon its energy acquis, setting up an embryonic foreign energy policy and overcoming egoistic interests by its member states.
Given this framework, the panel welcomes theoretically strong arguments collecting evidence in three different strands of policy-oriented research on energy:
• Energy as a market good, the construction and strengthening of energy markets, the emergence of a global governance for the provision of energy as a common public good;
• Energy as a security option, pipeline diplomacy, conflictual producer/consumer relations and the involvement of developmental and poverty issues;
• Energy as a negative externality producer, environmental and health concerns, the ‘renewables’ narrative and the emerging efficiency issue.

Papers

8.6.1. Scarica il paper in pdfHow far does the European Union influence energy sector reform in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries?

Luigi Carafa

Abstract: This article investigates the extent to which the European Union (EU) is capable to influence domestic energy reform in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries. It builds on a comparative study of three energy policy dimensions (sustainability, competitiveness and security) in two countries (Turkey and Morocco) to argue that the more strongly EC energy principles are codified in the acquis, the more these rules are institutionalised in transnational networks and are internationalised, the more their adoption is facilitated in the target countries. However, domestic structures remain the key determinants shaping patterns of reform adoption. A set of institutional factors (the willingness and state capacity to formulate and adopt reform, the necessity to cope with country-specific energy problems) constrain the likelihood and extent of sector reform. Zooming out, this article registers the hit of EC energy sustainability principles and rules in the countries considered. These findings highlight the importance of moving ahead in intra-EU energy integration on the one hand, and the importance of devoting increasing resources to administrative and technical capacity-building programs on the other hand.

8.6.2. Scarica il paper in pdfMorocco and the European Union: bridging opportunities through the Mediterranean Solar Plan. An overlook of Morocco’s perspectives

Gonzalo Escriban-Francés, Israel Solorio

Abstract: Recent years have contemplated an unprecedented development of the European Energy Policy. In such a way, the spring 2007 European Council not only outlined the integration between climate and energy policies, but also represented the formal conceptualization of the threefold strategic objective: energy security; environmental sustainability and the fight against climate change; and competitiveness. Nowadays there is an “infant” European Energy Policy constructed on a sectorcharacterized base, involving related policies as shown in the article 194 of the Lisbon Treaty. Nevertheless, given the EU limited competences on energy, there have been voices that warn about the important trade-offs between the European Energy Policy main axes (internal market, environment and external supply), something that has been named as the ‘EU energy tri-lemma’. Based on the international cooperation literature, this paper aims to analyze the way in which the EU international energy cooperation in Latin America could be an instrument not only to reach the threefold strategic objective, but also a way to promote sustainable development beyond its frontiers.

8.6.3. Scarica il paper in pdfInternational regimes as knowledge syndicates? Energy and trends of global governance

Andrea Ciambra

Abstract: Traditional state power and sovereignty are steadily being eroded, especially in terms of the provision of certain fundamental ‘public goods’. States, in particular, are incapable of managing the knowledge and information which is essential to maintain competitiveness and sustainability in an interdependent economy. Reliable structures of global governance and international cooperation, however, are far from being established. Energy—a top-of- the-agenda issue for most governments, private entrepreneurs and civil societies—is a manifest example of these dynamics. The current system of energy global governance entails policy actions scattered over diverse actors. The International Energy Agency has a prominent role, but it is weakened by its limited membership, and knowledge-driven (‘epistemic’) rather than material or executive powers. This paper argues that neither membership size nor available means are hampering global energy governance. Rather, energy is one of a number of public goods which lie in limbo—where states cannot afford their provision, and diverse interests prevent the establishment of an international authority. After introducing international regime theory and the concept of knowledge-based epistemic communities, the paper reviews the current state of global energy governance. It then provides a comparison of this structure with national and regional governance regimes on the one hand, and with environmental and health global regimes on the other.

8.6.4. Scarica il paper in pdfThe Falkland Islands and the UK v. Argentina Oil Dispute: Whither Legal Regime? On How Global Energetic Concerns can Catalyze Non-Armed, Economic Conflicts

Alice Ruzza

Abstract: Current conflicts over natural resources encompass various actors (State, Non-State), resources (renewable and non-renewable), and contexts (in wartime, peacetime, and disputed sovereignty, territories). The Falkland Islands’ struggle, involving Argentina and UK since 1833, well illustrates the de jure and de facto obstacles in resource-rich countries, especially when state jurisdiction over a territory is contested. In 1995 the States concluded a Joint Declaration for Hydrocarbons, an attempt to overcome their unresolved––and unresolvable––sovereignty dispute, fostering a cooperative behavior with the purpose of not paralyzing the access to natural resources. The global need for oil, however, has lately harshened the battle between the two States: Argentina unilaterally terminated the Declaration in 2007 since no exploitable resources where found in the Special Area, whereas gas and oil deposits were discovered in the North Falklands Basin, within the islands’ EEZ. The Falklands’ case is both arduous and urgent. On the one hand, no clear-cut, applicable normative framework is available; on the other, the juridical problem of the access to natural resources in a context of disputed sovereignty is a modern concern which regards the resource course issue, and whose analysis could reveal whether a general cooperative––or benefit sharing––rule, to prevent future clashes, does exist. The present contribution, relying on the Falklands’ case, will examine whether the settlement of the territorial dispute still works as a prerequisite for attributing the title to natural resources. By investigating the Malvinas’ case, this paper will consider whether States in a situation of disputed sovereignty, may be entitled to freeze the settlement of their territorial sovereign contention, while autonomously deciding on the resources’ claim––and the attribution of the correlative, oil-related rights. To this end, the UN practice, especially the GA and the SEC resolutions concerning natural resources exploitation, the Law of the Sea and the principles governing the maritime jurisdiction, the principle of Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources (PSNR), the intra-state agreements and negotiations, will be investigated.

8.6.5. Scarica il paper in pdfEnergy Security, Natural Gas and the Russian-European Relationship

Carlo Frappi, Matteo Verda

Abstract: Energy security is commonly defined as reliable and affordable supply of energy products. This definition is deeply rooted in the effort of the Western countries to deal with their growing dependence on oil and - more recently - gas imports. Despite its influence in orienting national and supranational policies, this definition of energy security largely overlooks the meaning of energy security for the exporting countries. As the importers need energy products in order to run their economies, the exporters need reliable and sound revenues deriving from oil and gas exploitation in order to keep their economies viable. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt a wider definition of energy security, encompassing the perspective of both importing and exporting countries. This twofold interpretation of energy security gives a better insight into the interaction between importers and exporters, in particular in the case of natural gas. Indeed, gas faces a unique technological feature: pipeline is by far the cheapest transport modality - at least, till 7,000 kilometres. This technical feature entails important consequences in the relationship between sellers and buyers: once the infrastructure is built, there is no possibility of switching the trading partner – as in the case of oil or coal. Furthermore, pipelines need huge investments and a long period of use to be repaid. Those features - rigidity and financial commitment - make the construction of a gas pipeline a decision with great implications at political level. The role of the construction of gas pipelines as a central driver of energy policies - and, increasingly, foreign policies - is particularly evident in the case of the European-Russian relationship and its consequences on the broader Eurasian context. The paper will investigate this relationship on the basis of the twofold interpretation of energy security and the role of the gas pipelines as the meetingpoint of both European and Russian energy security strategies.

8.6.6. Scarica il paper in pdfSons of interdependence: the Strategic Economic Dialogue, a new framework for Sino-American energy relations

Veronica Lenzi

Abstract: This paper shall analyze the results of the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) between the United States and China on energy matters, as a successful example of the IR interdependence theory. First, the paper will consider the Unocal diplomatic stalemate as a turning point in the Chinese approach to non-traditional security issues, through a focus on Chinese oil companies and their present role in Beijing’s approach to bilateral strategic relations with America. The constitution of the SED will then be investigated in the light of what the interdependence theory framework predicts on the political use of economic interconnections as a new way to protect countries’ national interest. The paper will try to assess whether the presence of the SED has been critical in creating the conditions for energy and environmental deals between the two countries and, more broadly, in influencing their negotiation processes on economic strategic issues. This assessment will take place through a critical review of the most salient SED deals on energy from its creation up to now, with particular attention to the relations between the energy public and private sectors. The argument of the paper is that such an informal and non-binding place of discussion has been significant in easing the attainment of agreements on energy and is responsible for a substantive implementation of the decisions taken. Finally, the energy topics that the Obama administration has entrusted to the SED for discussion will be reviewed to assess the opportunities for future development of this top-level, informal institution.

8.7 Realism reloaded. The role of realist thinking in the current IR debate

Chairs: Pier Domenico Tortola, Andrea Locatelli

Abstract: The end of the Cold War and the ensuing acceleration of non-state-centered phenomena--such as international terrorism, financial globalization and regional integration--in the past two decades have posed a big challenge to the once dominant neorealist school of international relations. Yet what we are witnessing is well short of a true paradigmatic revolution: while rival approaches – in the first place ideational and post-positivist ones – have taken a considerable slice of the IR academic production, they in no way dominate the discipline today. At the same time, realism and neorealism still inspire a smaller, but very vital, community of scholars, departments, think tanks and journals. Resulting from this is a theoretically more balanced field of study and a debate between (neo)realism and its competitors that is perhaps more interesting than ever. The panel celebrates this theoretical debate by bringing together papers analyzing its many aspects. The focus is intentionally broad so as to leave space to a wide range of topics, consistently with the breadth of the debate under exam. Examples of issues of interest here include:
- the current theoretical value of Waltzian structural realism;
- the relevance of new realist trends such as neoclassical realism;
- critical views of realism;
- the rationale and opportunities for the theoretical integration of different schools of thought;
Papers with an empirical contribution and purely theoretical studies are equally welcome

Papers

8.7.1. Scarica il paper in pdfStrategy as an Intermestic Issue: Combining Realism and Constructivism in the Application of the Two-level Game to the Making of Military Strategy

Valentina Morselli

Abstract: This paper proposes a theoretical framework, which combines Realist and Social Constructivism assumptions to explain how states take military strategic decisions. In addition, the aim is to show how this framework can be applicable to concrete case studies.
The concept of “strategy” has proven notoriously difficult to define, for strategy is a process, a constant adaptation to shifting conditions in a world where uncertainty dominates. Although the Realist tradition - with its view of states as unitary actors primarily concerned with physical survival in an anarchic world arena - explains part of the notion of strategy, there is a need to take into account other “intervening variables”.
This paper argues that - next to the traditional realist variables - to correctly understand the strategic decision process, norms and ideas of the actors should be considered as variables with explanatory potential. Constructivism and its ideational causality give account for the fact that strategic decisions do not happen in a national political void. A combination of both Realist and Constructivist tools is hence desirable. The key contribution of this combined theoretical framework is to explain how differences in the collective beliefs and norms that characterize structures can lead to different understandings and behavior even when the formal structure is similar.
In addition - trough the theoretical framework proposed - this paper suggests an application of the basic mechanics of the two-level game as described by Putnam (1988), to concrete decisional processes in national military strategy. Transferring Putnam’s model from the realm of diplomatic bargaining to the making of military strategy, the two-level game becomes a broadly applicable representation of both the bottom-up pressure of the national level on the deciding élite (including social-constructed variables like organizational culture, offensive/defensive predisposition and the perception of the enemy) and the top-down pressure of the international level on the decision process (with variables related to the structure of the system and material constraints such as the military endowment of the enemy).
In conclusion, the paper argues that there is a need for the replacement of what John Ruggie has termed “monocausal mania” to achieve a broader understanding of the decisional process of military strategy. Moving over the traditional dichotomy between the Social Constructivist and the Realist theoretical framework will allow the formulation of a pertinent model for the understanding of the making of military strategy.

8.7.2. How liberal is the European Union? A neorealist analysis in the light of the current multidisciplinary debate

Carlo Giuseppe Cirulli

Abstract: Over the last 60 years the European Union has emerged as an unusual political entity. The process of integration of Western Europe, with its fundamental contribution to the pacification of the Old Continent, can be seen as one of the most significant developments in international relations. Nevertheless, “the European Union remains dreadfully under-theorized and neglected in the neorealist canon”. Neorealists criticize sharply the post-sovereign idea according to which the European Union has developed its political system and international role far from the realist thinking and from the State centred model of International Relations.
My paper aims at investigating how the realist approach towards European Union could positioned in the current debate on EU studies. I refer to what M. Telò defines as the “Third Stage” of European Studies.
In the first part I will focus my analysis on the relation among EU studies, Comparative Politics and International Relations Theory. The underlying question is: “Which are the constitutive elements of a possible new paradigm based on a multidisciplinary approach”?
In the second part, I will illustrate the role of the realist perspective inside the early XXI Century academic debate on the EU. The underlying questions of the second part are: What are the reasons behind the neo-realist attitude towards the European integration Process? Is European Union really in opposition with neorealist assumptions?
The puzzle will be that of seeing why and how a “realist shadow” lies over any academic debate on EU. More than giving answers, the aim of my essay is that of pointing out the complexity of the analysis of European Union and its relation with the realist theory.

8.7.3. La dimensione dello spazio nell’analisi realista: dalla marginalità della guerra fredda ad una rinnovata centralità

Antonio Mascia

Abstract: Nel processo avviato dal collasso della struttura bipolare, lo spazio – una delle forze profonde, della long durée, che ciclicamente riemergono e si impongo all’attenzione nelle fasi di transizione – è tornato ad occupare una rilevanza di primo piano, contribuendo, quantomeno parzialmente, a colmare il vuoto lasciato dagli approcci mainstream (realismo strutturale in primis), trovatisi a fronteggiare una profonda crisi in termini di capacità esplicative ed euristiche. Il tema di questo paper è la relazione tra la dimensione del potere internazionale e la dimensione dello spazio. Per affrontarlo ci si chiederà quale sia stato il posto delle variabili spaziali all’interno della teoria realista e quale sia la loro rilevanza nel presente contesto internazionale.
Il rapporto di complementarità tra spazio e potere trova una propria sintesi nella natura bidimensionale del concetto di posizione. Se si adotta la prospettiva del realismo strutturale si può cogliere solamente la dimensione verticale del concetto in questione, osservando semplicemente le implicazioni della collocazione di ciascun attore lungo la gerarchia del potere internazionale. La dimensione orizzontale del concetto di posizione permette invece di guardare ai vincoli ed alle opportunità che vengono dalla collocazione di ciascun attore nello spazio (geografico). L’integrazione delle dimensioni di potere e spazio consente di analizzare congiuntamente i condizionamenti strutturali (afferenti cioè alla sfera potestativa) e geografici (legati alla distanza) e di comprendere come essi possano interagire vicendevolmente.
Il paper consta di quattro sezioni. La prima sarà dedicata alla trattazione della salienza delle variabili spaziali all’interno dei lavori dei padri del realismo. Una breve panoramica delle opere di alcuni tra i più autorevoli esponenti della scuola realista da Morgenthau a Mearsheimer consentirà di far emergere la generale attenzione dedicata alla dimensione spaziale. A partire da ciò, la seconda sezione cercherà di mostrare l’eccentricità del realismo strutturale nell’omissione di ogni considerazione per la rilevanza delle variabili spaziali, oltre che le ragioni che indussero un autore come Waltz ad estromettere lo spazio dalla cassetta degli strumenti analitici che riteneva fondamentali. La terza esplorerà la possibilità di accrescere la forza esplicativa del realismo strutturale incorporandovi proprio quelle variabili spaziali che esso trascura ampiamente. La quarta, e ultima, sezione sarà dedicata ad una breve presentazione dei programmi di ricerca che possono beneficiare della giustapposizione tra variabili potestative e spaziali.

8.7.4. Neo-realism and International Sub-systems of Small states. Insights from Sub-Saharan African Countries’ Interactions

Mughanda Muhindo e Gaetano Calenzo

Abstract: The prevailing wisdom in IR debates finds that neo-realism is the “powerful tool” predicting weak states’ behavior. It has been argued that systemic factors are more likely to explain foreign policy choices of small states if compared to domestic factors. This paper is an exploration of the structural realist hypotheses about small states’ behavior in the international system. It particularly questions the fact that, while neo-realism gives weight to structural explanations in explaining small states’ behavior, it pays little attention to the relativity of smallness. Moving from the conviction that the neo-realist hypotheses could have gained more consistency if they were tested on smaller states of sub-systems crowded by countries considered small in global comparisons, it discovers that, focusing on smaller states of the Sub-Saharan-African sub-system, the neorealist expectations find very little empirical support.

8.8 Superpotenze, grandi potenze e potenze regionali: l’impatto degli attori sul SI

Chairs: Giovanni Andornino, Serena Giusti

Abstract: Il panel si propone di indagare l’impatto degli attori sul Sistema internazionale. Si muove dall’assunto che il SI, dopo l’esaurimento del paradigma bipolare e il declino del momento unipolare americano, sia in una fase di fluidità in cui gli attori ridefiniscono i propri interessi e le proprie strategie. Le risorse del potere di cui gli attori dispongono sono mutate rapidamente, mutando allo stesso tempo gli equilibri e le alleanze del sistema. I ‘complessi regionali di sicurezza’ si sono rinvigoriti ma allo stesso tempo le dinamiche globali e sovranazionali influenzano il comportamento di attori statali e non.

E’ ancora plausibile ricorrere alla categoria di Superpotenze, grandi potenze e potenze regionali per comprendere il corso del SI? A quali livelli si muovo gli attori in grado di influenzare il SI contemporaneo? E’ possibile distinguere un livello regionale da uno globale? Su quali risorse basano la loro potenza gli attori più influenti? Come interagiscono fra di loro? Quali sono i loro obiettivi strategici e gli strumenti per raggiungerli?

Papers

8.8.1. Il nuovo attivismo della foreign policy tuca nell'era Davutoglu

Valeria Giannotta

8.8.2. Brazil: The limits of a would-be global power without regional consensus

Ignacio F. Lara

8.8.3. Il rischio di ciclicità esplicativa del concetto di Normative Power Europe

Valentina Marino

8.8.4. Russia’s Strategy towards the Post-Soviet Space

Penkova Tomislava

8.9 Umanitarismo, diritti umani e missioni di pace

Chairs: Daniela Irrera

Abstract: Negli ultimi vent’anni, le operazioni di peace-keeping e le missioni di interposizione sono divenute lo strumento a cui il Consiglio di Sicurezza delle Nazioni Unite ha fatto più ricorso per controllare tregue e cessate-il-fuoco ed interrompere aggressioni violente tra gli stati. Le loro finalità si sono, però, diversificate, arrivando ad includere anche casi di conflitti civili, debolezza istituzionale e fallimento statale. Il frequente ricorso a missioni di peace-keeping ha contribuito anche al costante miglioramento delle caratteristiche delle missioni stesse, oltre che alla diversificazione dei loro compiti e della struttura organizzativa e gestionale. Uno specifico e peculiare approccio, proprio delle organizzazioni intergovernative, si è venuto, così, a delineare nei settori del conflict management e degli interventi umanitari.
Questo ha, da un lato, permesso di avanzare lungo il difficile cammino di costruzione di una responsabilità comune nei confronti di popolazioni colpite dagli effetti dei conflitti civili. Dall’altro ha, però, indirettamente contribuito ad allargare il gap tra la dimensione militare della gestione umanitaria e quella civile, terreno di azione di associazioni ed ONG umanitarie, tradizionalmente più vicine alle esigenze locali oltre che più sensibili alla denuncia delle violazioni dei diritti umani perpetrate durante i conflitti. Tale gap si traduce in incomprensioni logistiche e di principio tra attori inesorabilmente diversi e diversamente vincolati, ma attivi sui medesimi territori e sulle medesime issues.
Il panel intende includere tutte le problematiche connesse a questa area di ricerca mediante un focus molto ampio, rivolto sia all’analisi dell’evoluzione nel comportamento di attori intergovernativi e nell’utilizzo di strumenti tradizionali sia a quella delle innovazioni apportate dai soggetti non statali. Saranno accolti favorevolmente anche papers che fanno riferimento a specifici case studies.

Papers

8.9.1. Dal post-conflict intervention al neo-trusteeship: la comunità internazionale e i processi di democratizzazione nelle aree di crisi

Andrea Carati

Abstract: L’oggetto di analisi del paper è l’azione della comunità internazionale nelle aree di crisi, nel quadro delle nuove pratiche di intervento militare e civile. Più precisamente ci si concentra sulla fase cosiddetta post-conflict dell’intervento, nella quale le grandi potenze e le principali organizzazioni internazionali si impegnano in ambiziosi progetti di mantenimento della pace e di ricostruzione politico-istituzionale di segno democratico.
L’analisi si concentra anzitutto sulle forme di intervento militare-civile emerse dopo la fine della guerra fredda, individuando le principali novità da queste introdotte: la natura multilaterale dell’ingerenza, i processi di state-building, l’orientamento alla democratizzazione del paese oggetto di intervento. Nelle esperienze degli interventi in Bosnia, in Kosovo e in Afghanistan, uno dei più evidenti risultati prodotti da tali novità è la fase post-conflict, immediatamente successiva alla fase prettamente militare dell’intervento, nella quale gli obiettivi di stabilizzazione richiedono una nuova sintesi fra componente militare e civile.
La fase post-conflict – per via del forte impegno da parte della comunità internazionale e per via della sua eccezionale persistenza nel tempo – ha finito, a sua volta, per creare una situazione inedita rispetto alle forme di ingerenza del passato. Gli interventi più importanti del dopo-guerra fredda, infatti, non si concludono con la fase militare e dunque con il ritiro, né sfociano in un’occupazione o annessione del territorio oggetto di intervento. Producono, al contrario, una situazione intermedia fra il ritiro e l’occupazione, nella quale la comunità internazionale rimane profondamente impegnata negli “affari interni” degli stessi paesi ma, al medesimo tempo, ne riconosce la sovranità e l’indipendenza formale. Alcuni autori – Krasner, Fearon e Laitin – hanno identificato queste situazioni intermedie come nuove forme di protettorato o neo-trusteeship, nelle quali si configura una sovranità condivisa fra attori politici locali e presenza internazionale.
Nel paper si sostiene che l’origine di tali forme ibride di sovranità o di neo-trusteeship, frutto delle nuove pratiche di intervento post-conflict, è sostanzialmente l’obiettivo della democratizzazione del paese oggetto di intervento. Tale obiettivo inaugura ambiziosi progetti di institution-building e di state-building, i quali richiedono necessariamente un ruolo molto attivo della comunità internazionale, sia sul piano militare sia sul piano civile, e una presenza internazionale molto prolungata, creando così le condizioni di sovranità condivisa e di semiprotettorato.
Alla luce delle forme di neo-trusteeship prodotte dagli interventi post-conflict più prolungati (in Bosnia, Kosovo e Afghanistan), ci si concentrerà infine su due aspetti di carattere più generale: (a) sul rapporto fra principi democratici e convivenza internazionale, così come viene a manifestarsi nelle nuove pratiche di intervento militare e civile; (b) sul rapporto inedito che emerge fra intervento militare e transizione alla democrazia, non tanto in termini normativi (ossia chiedendosi se sia giusto o sbagliato l’uso della forza per esportare la democrazia), ma piuttosto chiedendosi quali tipi di indicazioni si possono trarre dai casi recenti di intervento post-conflict per i modelli di transizione alla democrazia.

8.9.2. Peacekeeping e Negoziato. Potere innovativo del negoziato nelle operazioni di peacekeeping

Emanuela C. Del Re

Abstract: Quali sono il ruolo e il valore del peacekeeping e del negoziato come parte del processo, oggi? E’ questa la domanda che ci si deve porre, alla luce delle numerose riflessioni sull’efficacia o meno del peacekeeping e sui risultati concreti e metodi utilizzati nel negoziato. Molte missioni delle Nazioni Unite sono state bersaglio di aspre critiche perché considerate fallimentari o stagnanti: in molte delle numerose declinazioni delle operazioni di peacekeeping (disengagement, observer groups, interim forces e altro) in casi come Cipro, Libano, Israele e Siria, India e Pakistan, ad esempio, il conflitto non è stato risolto. In altri casi, il negoziato è fallito: Croazia, Kosovo, Rwanda. Casi che si articolano in un ventennio di conflitti e che mostrano più debolezze che punti di forza. E’ da questa consapevolezza che prese spunto il rapporto Brahimi nel 2000 proponendo ampie riforme alle missioni delle NU. Molte ancora le difficoltà nelle missioni: la multidimensionalità; la previsione della durata; la definizione di peace-building e state-building e la loro concreta realizzazione; l’ambiguità del concetto di “normalizzazione”… In questo il negoziato si rivela di importanza fondamentale perché costituisce il fondamento metodologico di processi storici intesi a creare una stabilità a lungo termine, e per questo non può essere imposto dall’esterno agli attori locali. Come processo, il negoziato può essere “facilitato” da attori esterni, ma i numerosi errori commessi in passato impongono una revisione accurata sia del modo di concepire il negoziato sia nel metodo da applicare nel processo di negoziato. Innovare il negoziato vuol dire innovare le operazioni di peacekeeping stesse, per via che esso è cruciale e imprescindibile in tutte le fasi del processo. L’A., che ha condotto lunghe ricerche sul campo in zone di conflitto, esplora queste tematiche dal punto di vista teorico e operativo, facendo anche riferimento a casi studio, in particolare al Kosovo.

8.9.3. Peace Missions and ts Objects: Civil Society, Democracy, Multiculturalism

Ana Devic

Abstract: This paper seeks to critically examine the relationship between group identity in regions that have undergone periods of state collapse and organized ethno-nationalist violence and new citizenship and multiculturalism regimes in the post Cold War era that are transmitted through Western peace missions. Relying on my fieldwork on Western aid to civil society and political elites in the region of Yugoslavia’s successor states, I focus on the ways in which Western-made agendas for strengthening local civil society may develop in isolation from, or even in contradiction to local positive perceptions of cultural practices and solidarities, including long-time patterns of inter-ethnic coexistence during socialism. I have evidenced that the much lamented upon failure of Western funding to bring about a vibrant civil society and provide guarantees for peace may be due to: a) The coalescing definitions of peace and democracy in the West in the last decade or so, where democracy is considered to be a top-down 'exportable package'; and b) Exports of multiethnicity and multiculturalism that rest on the Western static model of concepts and relations of 'majority' and 'minority.' İn the end, I propose that ethnographic approaches, such as feminist take on autobiographies, film, and literature be used as advanced methods of conflict-analysis, which would reflect and stimulate a solidary, bottom-up responses to the violent past and subsequent foreign peace missions in the region, and lead to new, more stable forms of conflict-resolution and inter-ethnic reconciliation.

8.9.4. Bake Sales for the African Union: The NGO Campaign to Promote Civilian Protection in Darfur

Alexandra Cosima Budabin

Abstract: What is the role of non-state actors in peacekeeping? There is widespread agreement that conflict resolution and peacekeeping lie in the hands of states and international institutions. But today, non-state actors have begun to enter the arena of world politics using both traditional and innovative channels. To contribute to the protection of civilians in Darfur, the US-based NGO Genocide Intervention-Network
(GI-NET) attempted to partner with the African Union (AU), a regional organization with a peacekeeping mission in Darfur. This paper is a case study of the GI-NET campaign for civilian protection and the organization’s interactions with the AU. GI-NET’s strategy to support civilian protection was based on three concurrent trends in the post-Cold War era: the targeting of civilians; the expanding role of non-state actors like aid agencies and NGOs in peace support operations; the emphasis on addressing civilian protection as presented in the framework of Responsibility to Protect. Using Schumaker’s typology of policy responsiveness, I evaluate GI-NET’s degree of influence on the AU. My main data source consists of in-depth interviews conducted with GI-NET leadership, security experts and officials from the US Department of State. Based on this evidence, I argue that the GI-NET campaign demonstrates the limits of a non-state actor’s capacity to support
peacekeeping forces during a conflict.

8.9.5. Peace missions in the Former Yugoslavia. A case study of humanitarian action, human rights, and peace missions

Raileanu Raluca

Abstract: The wars in the Former Yugoslavia shook Europe’s peace and stability in the beginning of the 1990’s.
In the midst of violence and political instability, the United Nations mandated UNPROFOR (United Nations Protection Force) to restore peace and stability in the region. Then, NATO decided to intervene through the Implementation Force (IFOR), followed by NATO’s SFOR (Stabilization Force) and KFOR (Kosovo Force). Finally, the European Force Peacekeeping mission, EUFOR, took over in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
These peace missions in the Former Yugoslavia have greatly contributed to the development of peacekeeping missions, in that these have evolved to become more efficient instruments towards restoring and maintain peace and security.
This paper will underline the importance of the peace missions in the Former Yugoslavia and it will showcase these as prime examples of evolving conflict management approaches. The paper will also employ concepts drawn from the English School of International relations to explore humanitarian intervention.
All in all, the peace missions in the former Yugoslavia shall better help us to understand conflict management and how it has evolved to accommodate a variety of state and non-state actors, such as non-governmental organizations.

8.9.6. UNPREDEP- The UN's Preventive diplomacy and conflict prevention strategies on the Balkans- a success model for the future?

Mehmet Yilmazata

Abstract: This proposal deals with the concept of „preventive diplomacy“ , meaning a conflict prevention strategy supported by the International Community actually dealing with root causes of potential violent conflicts in an area before they break out violently. As the first successfully implemented model of preventive diplomacy was exercised by the UN in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, this study will focus on the implemented strategies, reasons of success and possible lessons for humanitarian interventions in other areas.
After an historical glimpse at past humanitarian interventions and peace missions conducted by the UN, it will be discussed whether the UN`s strategy in Macedonia owed its success primarily to a successful “grand strategy” or due to an effective reaction to local grievances. It will be critically determined whether the UN's “Macedonian lessons” actually are implementable globally or if local particularities of that conflict fostered an agreement between the parties involved.
It is assumed that the most important aspects for a satisfying implementation of preventive diplomacy is the possibility to create a “win-win” situation between the parties as well as the existence of of a coherent and sustainable strategy involving neighboring actors or countries and ideally the existence of supranational, independent or at least neutral actors that can justify the concept of humanitarian intervention. Besides that, a short outlook on the UN`s center for preventive diplomacy in Central Asia, being an example of institutionalized preventive diplomacy will be included in the study.

8.9.7. Is our peace just enough? Transitional justice and dealing with past in ex-Yugoslav states

Ana Ljubojevic

Abstract: Conflicts in Bosnia and Croatia from 1991 to 1995 left huge impact on political and economical systems of successor countries of the former Yugoslavia. Peace keeping and peace building strategies targeted state building process and implementation of the rule of law. At present, fifteen years after the end of war, society is still intensively trying to deal with the past.
Generally, societies in transition from war ravaged reality to democracy are using various mechanisms of transitional justice, such as war crimes trial, truth commissions, lustration and reparation. This paper tries to address the outcomes of transitional justice mechanisms promoted by the international community and their implementation at the local level once the conflict has ended.
In 1993, International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia was founded by the UNSC Resolution. Dayton peace agreement obliged all post-Yugoslav states to collaborate and extradite alleged criminals of war. Transitional justice mechanisms, which would lead to the process of reconciliation, were manifested in successor Yugoslav states almost exclusively by war crimes trials. Transfer of cases to domestic Special National Courts for war crimes started with completion and back referral strategy. Lately, changes in criminal code and judicial reform improved situation of human rights and freedoms for victims and refugees.
Main objective of reconstruction of post-conflict societies is a creation of just and durable peace. It should be implemented jointly by international and local actors, by using systematic, persistent, long-lasting confrontation with past in order to create a democratic environment for the future.

8.9.8. Promoting Human Rights in EU

Ana-Maria Popovici

Abstract: Democracy requires equal rights for its citizens, opportunities that society offers, equality before the law. A just society provides for its members equal chances to succeed in life, without any privileges or discriminations. Equality does not mean uniformity. People differentiate themselves by capacities, education, preferences or skills. Diversity must be accepted and respected, because it is an important factor in the development of society and culture.
In a democracy, the power is determined by general elections which are equal, free, secret and direct , those who possess it having a limited mandate. The elections are truly democratic when there are several alternatives. Freedom and diversity of opinion, the right of being informed, minority protection and free opposition are essential requirements for democratic elections.
Unfortunately, we are living in a society characterized by inequality. Only by working together both at a European and national level, can the civil society and media make the society stronger, developing the creative potential of people belonging to different social classes, whose activity build up the media in Europe and enrich us all in this process, due to the fact that the European societies are multicultural and diverse. Diversity should be understood as an asset rather than a threat to democracy. It doesn’t matter whether we are policy makers, media professionals or mere citizens, everyone of us is both a responsible person, as well as an actor in the society in which we live.

8.9.9. Human Rights in Independent Kosovo

Branislav Radeljic

Abstract: After the ethnic Albanian leadership had declared unilateral independence of the province of Kosovo in February 2008 and without providing the Serbian minority with a durable solution, the international community commenced insisting on the compulsory process of reconciliation between the Serbs and the Albanians in order to support their co-existence and thus secure better future, not only for the province itself, but for the wider Balkan region.

While having in mind that “subject peoples must be prepared for political independence before being granted it” (Beitz, 1999: 96), this paper analyzes the conundrums in the field of human rights in independent Kosovo and possible complications. The current situation has been characterized by unviable political, economic and social components that could easily generate new human rights abuses within the borders of Kosovo. Accordingly, this paper, while having in mind possible scenarios that may result from Kosovo independence in the near future, examines the current state of the affairs and identifies responsible actors expected to take active role in the process of reconciliation and prevention of human rights abuses: Serbs, Albanians, and internationals.
Only by looking at the engagement of the all three groups, it is possible to assess the present situation and indicate aspects each party should pay attention to – for the overall benefit of the people who have decided to remain in Kosovo.

8.10 Le Medie Potenze nella teoria delle relazioni internazionali e nella realtà della politica internazionale

Chairs: Marco Valigi

Abstract: Nella teoria delle relazioni internazionali, le medie potenze sono un oggetto del tutto ignorato. Il solo studio generale sul tema è l’opera di Carsten Holbraad Middle Powers in International Politics, pubblicata nel 1984. La ridotta letteratura che “pretende” di studiare il comportamento delle medie potenze si riduce a una serie di studi di caso e di analisi talvolta superficiali della politica estera di un ristretto gruppo di stati convenzionalmente ritenuti, o autodefinitisi, medie potenze. Pur ammettendo la marginalità di questa categoria di attori, tanto e tale disinteresse è sorprendente.
Il concetto di media potenza è tuttora privo di una definizione; il comportamento di questi stati privo di categorie per mezzo delle quali essere interpretato; e infine il loro ruolo all’interno della struttura internazionale indeterminato. Nel caso delle medie potenze, il divario tra teoria e fatti della politica internazionale è scientificamente ingiustificabile. La prima e più generale finalità di questo panel, quindi, è stimolare studiosi italiani a muovere i primi passi per colmare questa lacuna. Il panel, infatti, si propone di promuovere una riflessione sia teorica sia empirica su come il cambiamento del sistema internazionale successivo alla fine della guerra fredda abbia fatto progressivamente emergere il ruolo delle medie potenze. In particolare, le linee di analisi alle quali si intende dare priorità in questa occasione saranno: 1) il rapporto tra stabilità internazionale e le medie potenze; 2) il ruolo delle medie potenze nella diplomazia multilaterale e nelle istituzioni internazionali; 3) risorse naturali e politica estera delle medie potenze; 4) la strumentalizzazione della retorica nazionalista: quali rischi per le medie potenze?

Papers

8.10.1. Italia e Africa, così vicine, così lontane

Giampaolo Calchi Novati e Lia Quartapelle

Abstract: La politica dell’Italia in Africa può essere letta come un esempio paradigmatico delle difficoltà che una media potenza si trova ad affrontare quando, nell’epoca post-bipolare, deve ripensare al proprio ruolo internazionale. La fine della guerra fredda ha segnato una svolta nelle relazioni tra Italia e Africa. In Africa sub-sahariana, prima del 1989 e negli anni appena successivi, l’Italia era riuscita a ottenere dei successi importanti dei quali la pace di Roma, firmata dagli esponenti governativi e del movimenti dei ribelli del Mozambico nel 1992, è solo l’esempio più evidente. Un passato coloniale complessivamente breve e il regime della partitocrazia permisero all’Italia di asserire un proprio ruolo nel continente che in alcuni casi (ad esempio Angola, Eritrea, Somalia, Mozambico) è stato più significativo di quello di potenze più consolidate o con trascorsi storici più sedimentati.
Con l’emergere dell’equilibrio post-bipolare, la capacità italiana di concepire, praticare e affinare un’autonoma politica africana è venuta meno. In particolare, due questioni meritano attenzione. Da un lato, l’Italia non riesce ad affermarsi in modo continuativo e credibile nelle organizzazioni internazionali che hanno come focus l’Africa, a causa delle difficoltà che attanagliano soprattutto la sua politica di cooperazione internazionale. Dall’altro lato, la corsa per le risorse (naturali) ha proiettato sulla scena africana nuovi soggetti statuali che, agendo su piani meno tradizionali, risultano essere più competitivi rispetto ad altri, come le medie potenze, meno flessibili e dotati.

8.10.2. At the table with great powers: assessing Italy’s post-1989 foreign policy within the G8

Nicola Chelotti

Abstract: The G8 has been for a long time an overlooked subject in the study of international relations. Only recently scholars began to investigate the yearly summits and evaluate their results. What is achieved at the summit, what decisions are taken and declarations are made are carefully assessed as well as the degree of compliance with those decisions. On the other hand, within the growing Italian foreign policy literature a thorough and organised evaluation of Italian participation within that framework is still missing. Much that has been written about Italy and G8 concerns the 2001 summit and the riots that followed (and in most cases the area of study was that of social movements).
This paper aims to partially fill that gap by analysing the role Italy played within the G8 framework: was Italy able to upload Italian interests and to shape G8’s agenda? To what extent? On the contrary, was Italy only a peripheral actor within that institution, as several observers claim? In what ways did Italy employ the G8 summits (and its Presidency) to enhance its credibility and weight on world stage? As a result, three areas will be explored: a) Italy’s participation at the yearly summit; b) the degree of Italy’s commitment and compliance, with the G8 decisions, in the summit aftermath; c) the organisation of the summit during Italy’s G8 Presidencies (Naples 1994; Genoa 2001; L’Aquila 2009). The paper investigates these issues evaluating Italy’s participation and performance in the G8 framework within the broader context of the Italian commitment to international organisations and of Italian foreign policy after 1989.

8.10.3. America and the Middle Powers: The Quest for International Stability

Davide Fiammenghi

Abstract: Which kind of international system did emerge after the end of the Cold War? Is it a multipolar one, as someone argues, or should we rather describe it as a unipolar system, a definition which scholars often agree on? A second, but strictly related question concerns its nature: is the new system a stable or unstable one? As far as the first issue is concerned, scholars usually come to the conclusion that the system is a unipolar one. The second question, however, seems more complex. In order to understand if the system is stable or not we need to investigate the relations of the superpower to second-tier powers. To put it simply: do we find any general patterns of behaviour of the middle-sized power vis-à-vis the United States, and if so, which one? Five general answers have been provided. First, some argue that the hard, military balancing is the ultimate reply to the American preponderance after the Cold War. Maybe this is a just trend right now, a tendency more than a fact, but sooner or later balancing will be the outcome. Other students underline that balancing does already occur, but that only autocratic, illiberal states choose for this option. So, for example, we should expect Iran or China to opt for a balancing policy, but not Europe or Canada. Other scholars introduced the concept of ‘soft balancig.’ According to this view, we are not experiencing a new trend of balance-of-power politics but states do practice a new, more sophisticated opposition to the hegemon: political and diplomatic attrition, filibustering in the international fora, and so on. Another strand of thought argues that balancing is just a relic of the Cold War. New trends in international politics, and the very nature of the American power made it pointless to keep on pursuing the old balancing policy. Finally, a claim has been made that the gap in military capabilities is just too wide to be filled. States choose not to take a strong stance against America simply because they are not strong enough. In the final section some insights are drawn to suggest that the current system may be stable as long as the middle powers and America are concerned. However, there is no evidence that such a pacific attitude would involve secondary states at the periphery of the system.

8.10.4. Le medie potenze e le sfide della sicurezza energetica

Marco Valigi e Matteo Verda

Abstract: La fine della Guerra Fredda ha modificato profondamente lo scenario internazionale. Da un quadro ordinato e tendenzialmente stabile si è infatti passati a uno più dinamico, nel quale sia i ruoli dei diversi attori internazionali sia le fonti di incertezza per gli Stati stanno affrontando un processo evolutivo. In questa prospettiva, il ruolo delle medie potenze e la sicurezza energetica sono due delle tematiche di crescente rilevanza. In letteratura, tuttavia, questi argomenti non sono mai stati messi in relazione in modo sistematico, né sono state sviluppate delle specifiche considerazioni riguardo alle politiche di sicurezza energetica degli attori mediani. Per quanto concerne le medie potenze, la letteratura che ha tentato di studiare il loro ruolo non ha sviluppato argomenti basati su considerazioni di potenza e di interesse. Nessun autore, infatti, sembra essersi interrogato su come il controllo o meno da parte di questi Stati su risorse strategicamente cruciali - idrocarburi e uranio, ad esempio - influenzi i rapporti tra potenze principali e medie potenze e il ruolo sistemico di queste ultime. Le definizioni di sicurezza energetica presenti in letteratura, inoltre, tendono a focalizzarsi sul rapporto importatori/esportatori. Nessuno, infatti, ha ancora tentato di elaborare un criterio che metta in relazione il concetto di sicurezza energetica con le dimensioni di diversi attori statuali.
Muovendo da una tassonomia degli Stati, una volta individuata quale sia la classe delle medie potenze, il paper intende indagare se le politiche di sicurezza energetica dei medi presentino dei tratti peculiari negli obiettivi e negli strumenti. In secondo luogo, saranno formulate delle ipotesi riguardo a come il grado di controllo che un medio possiede su risorse energetiche strategicamente rilevanti ne condizioni i suoi rapporti con le potenze principali. Infine, per mezzo di alcuni case study, sarà verificata la plausibilità di queste ipotesi.

8.11 Il ruolo di USA, UE e NATO nel sistema politico contemporaneo: valutazioni e possibili scenari futuri

Tavola rotonda

Discussants: Piero Ignazi

Partecipanti: Filippo Andreatta, Fulvio Attinà, Alberto Martinelli e Vittorio Emanuele Parsi